The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that solar electric generation will constitute 7% of total U.S. electricity production by 2025, up from 4% in 2023, as outlined in its January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Developers forecast nearly 80 gigawatts of solar power will be added over the next two years, leading to an 84% increase in U.S. solar generating capacity and establishing solar as the primary contributor to the growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025. EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis commented on the significant transformation in U.S. electric generation, with solar expanding rapidly, gaining market share from coal, and moderating the growth in natural gas consumption. He emphasized the ongoing importance of coal and natural gas in the U.S. electric grid, despite the increasing prominence of variable renewable resources like solar and wind.

U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Production: Despite slower growth, the forecast predicts U.S. crude oil production setting new records of 13.2 million barrels per day in 2024 and exceeding 13.4 million barrels per day in 2025. Annual U.S. natural gas production is also anticipated to reach new highs in 2024 and 2025.

Gasoline Prices: U.S. motorists are expected to experience lower retail gasoline prices over the next two years, with prices decreasing from an average of $3.52 per gallon in 2023 to approximately $3.40 per gallon in 2024 and around $3.20 per gallon in 2025.

Crude Oil Prices: The forecast indicates relatively stable crude oil prices in the current year, with OPEC+ continuing to restrict crude oil production. Prices are projected to decline to $79 per barrel in 2025 as production growth surpasses slowing global oil demand.

Coal Markets: Coal production is forecasted to decline by 26% over the next two years, reaching 430 million short tons in 2025, marking its lowest level since the early 1960s.

Natural Gas Prices: The spot price of natural gas is anticipated to rise to an average of $3.00 per million British thermal units in 2025, up from $2.54 million British thermal units in 2023. However, substantial price increases are limited by U.S. production growth.