Renewable energy costs in Asia last year were 13% cheaper than coal and are expected to be 32% cheaper by 2030, according to a new study. According to Wood Mackenzie’s latest analysis of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for the Asia Pacific (APAC) region, the LCOE from renewables reached a historic low in 2023. This is significant because it marks a shift toward making renewables increasingly competitive with coal, a mainstay in APAC’s energy mix. The driving force behind this trend is the substantial reduction in capital costs for renewable energy projects. China leads the pack with a 40-70% cost reduction in utility-scale solar, onshore wind, and offshore wind compared to other Asia Pacific markets. China is expected to maintain a 50% cost advantage in renewable energy up to 2050.

Solar is the cheapest and falling. The significant drop in solar power costs, by 23% in 2023, signals the end of supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures. As a result, utility solar is now the cheapest power source in 11 out of 15 APAC countries. New-build solar project costs are expected to fall by another 20% by 2030 due to lower module prices and an oversupply from China. This drop in solar costs, particularly in 2023-24, puts pressure on coal and gas and highlights a 23% decrease in LCOE for utility PV across the Asia Pacific, driven by a 29% decline in capital costs. Distributed solar, such as residential rooftop solar, saw a 26% decrease in 2023. This makes distributed solar 12% cheaper on average than residential power prices, unlocking substantial potential for rooftop solar. 

Distributed solar is becoming increasingly enticing for customers in many Asia Pacific markets, with costs now 30% below rising residential tariffs in countries like China and Australia. However, markets with subsidized residential power tariffs, such as India, might have to wait until 2030 or later to see competitive prices for distributed solar.